A broad area of low pressure in the Gulf of Mexico is drawing the attention of the National Hurricane Center (NHC), which says there’s a slight chance it could develop into a tropical system sometime next week. But even if no storm forms, parts of Florida and the Gulf Coast could still be in for several days of heavy rain.
The disturbance is the same one that’s been monitored by both the FOX 35 Storm Team and the Climate Prediction Center over the past few days. The NHC included it in their latest tropical outlook released Saturday afternoon.
What to expect in Florida
Forecasters say the system could take shape near the southeastern U.S. coast, including the Florida Peninsula, before drifting west into the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC describes the conditions for development as only “marginally conducive,” meaning it’s still too early to tell whether it will become something more organized — like a depression or tropical storm.
Still, rain chances are rising, especially across Florida. The latest forecast models show the potential for widespread rainfall from Sunday through Wednesday, and possibly lingering showers through Friday, particularly in Central Florida, including the Orlando metro area.
FOX 35 meteorologist Noah Bergren notes that only a few weather models currently show actual tropical development, and even those are uncertain. “We’re still a number of days out,” he said, “so a lot can change between now and then.”
Current development outlook
According to the National Hurricane Center’s 2 p.m. Saturday update, the chances of this system forming into something stronger are still relatively low:
0% chance over the next 48 hours
20% chance over the next 7 days
That said, those numbers could change quickly if the environment over the Gulf becomes more favorable — including warmer waters and reduced wind shear.
Next name on the list: Dexter
If the system does manage to organize into a tropical storm, it would be named Tropical Storm Dexter. The next names lined up for the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season are Dexter, Erin, and Fernand.
How this fits into the 2025 season
This latest update comes just a few days after Colorado State University adjusted its seasonal forecast slightly, lowering its projection from 17 to 16 named storms for the 2025 season. It’s still expected to be an active season, with peak activity typically occurring between August and October.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30.
