Tropical Storm Dexter is drawing growing attention from meteorologists as new spaghetti model projections suggest a likely track across Florida, with a potential landfall in just 72 hours. As of Tuesday morning, the disturbance identified as 93L was gaining structure off Florida’s Atlantic coast, increasing the odds that it could soon become the season’s fourth named storm.
Why Dexter matters in July’s Atlantic storm cycle
So far, the 2025 Atlantic hurricane season has produced three named storms — Andrea, Barry, and Chantal. The most recent, Chantal, brought torrential rainfall and severe flooding to North Carolina, where some locations reported up to 9 inches (22.9 cm) of rain in a single day. Dexter, if formed, would be next in line and could make an early and fast-moving entrance.
According to Reed Timmer, PhD, a well-known storm chaser and meteorologist, early spaghetti plots are already showing potential landfall scenarios. He emphasized the importance of the storm moving quickly, as this could limit the time available for rapid intensification, reducing the risk of a major hurricane.
Spaghetti models suggest westward Florida crossing
Current model projections suggest the system could cross the Florida Peninsula moving westward and reach the northeastern Gulf of Mexico by midweek. Once over the Gulf’s warmer waters, the system could intensify into a tropical storm and possibly shift northward toward the Gulf states, including Alabama, Mississippi, Louisiana, and even reaching as far as Tennessee or Kentucky.
According to a Tuesday morning advisory from the National Hurricane Center (NHC), satellite wind data indicate that the system is gradually becoming better organized, although shower and thunderstorm activity remains somewhat scattered and disorganized. Still, conditions in the atmosphere appear favorable for development, especially once the system reaches the northeastern and north-central Gulf.
Rainfall forecast and flood threat across the Southeast
The NHC warns that regardless of development, heavy rainfall and localized flash flooding remain a concern for Florida and the north-central Gulf Coast. Over the next few days, 4 to 8 inches (10.1 to 20.3 cm) of rain are expected across central Florida, which could strain already saturated soils and urban drainage systems.
Dan Pydynowski, a meteorologist with AccuWeather, told Newsweek that rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches (2.5 to 5.1 cm) are likely to spread from far eastern Texas through the Florida Panhandle, while southern Mississippi and southeast Louisiana could see 4 to 8 inches (10.1 to 20.3 cm).
Uncertainty remains about Dexter’s intensity and track
The exact track and intensity of the system are still unclear. Meteorologist Matt Devitt explained via X (formerly Twitter) that the storm’s path within the Gulf is key: a northerly route would mean less time over warm water and limit its ability to strengthen, whereas a southerly trajectory would keep it over the open central Gulf, giving it more fuel to intensify and pushing potential landfall westward from Alabama to Louisiana.
What to watch in the coming days
The National Hurricane Center currently gives the system a 40% chance of tropical cyclone formation within both the next 48 hours and the next 7 days—placing it in the “medium” development category. Forecasters will continue to monitor how the system evolves as it moves across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico.
The Atlantic hurricane season officially runs from June 1 through November 30, with July storms often marking the transition from early-season uncertainty to more active development, especially when ocean temperatures are elevated. The Eastern Pacific hurricane season began on May 15 and also extends through the end of November.
