From stormy skies to tropical heat
Minnesota is bracing for a dramatic weather shift starting Thursday night, with severe storms sweeping across the region overnight, followed by oppressive heat and humidity over the weekend. The setup involves a tropical-style warm front advancing through central Minnesota, bringing both nocturnal thunderstorms and a surge in tropical dew points. Let’s break it down.
Severe storm threat overnight across central Minnesota
A warm front moving through Friday night is setting the stage for two waves of overnight storms, both fueled by rich atmospheric moisture and strong upper-level dynamics. These systems are notorious for producing nocturnal severe weather, including damaging winds, torrential rainfall, and hail.
Wave one: Thursday night into Friday morning
The first cluster of storms is forecast to develop after sunset across western Minnesota, near the Fargo-Moorhead area. The system is expected to slide southeast along the Interstate 94 corridor, reaching the Twin Cities metro between 3 a.m. and 5 a.m. Friday.
The NOAA FV3 model indicates a well-defined track for these storms, bringing high winds, localized flooding, and possibly large hail. Much of central Minnesota, including the Minneapolis-St. Paul region, falls under a slight risk for severe weather through Friday morning. Overnight weather alerts and radios should remain active—severe watches and warnings are possible at any hour.
Wave two: Friday night into early Saturday
As Friday unfolds, most of the state will stay dry but increasingly hot and humid. Temperatures will rise into the mid to upper 90s°F (35–37°C) in the southwest, with dew points climbing into the mid-70s°F (23–24°C)—creating a tropical atmosphere ripe for another round of storms.
By late Friday night, a second wave of potentially severe storms is forecast to develop across northern Minnesota. The Storm Prediction Center has elevated the threat level to enhanced for this region through Saturday morning.
The FV3 model suggests a derecho-style event may unfold—an intense, long-lived windstorm capable of knocking down numerous trees—from northwest Minnesota to the North Shore. While these storms will likely stay north of the Twin Cities, the risk for significant wind damage across Duluth, Bemidji, and other northern towns is elevated.
Storms should clear Lake Superior’s North Shore around 6 a.m. Saturday, just in time for Grandma’s Marathon, with runners enjoying cooler temperatures in the 50s and 60s°F (10–20°C) during the early hours.
Extreme heat warning this weekend across southern Minnesota
Following the overnight storms, southern and central Minnesota will bake under extreme heat. On Saturday, temperatures are expected to surge into the upper 90s and low 100s°F (37–38°C), particularly in southwest Minnesota.
Oppressive humidity intensifies the heat
Adding to the discomfort, tropical moisture will drench the atmosphere. Dew points will remain elevated, ranging from mid-70s to possibly 80°F (24–27°C)—levels more typical of the Gulf Coast than the Upper Midwest. This will push heat index values well over 105°F (40°C) in many areas.
This heat wave, though intense, will be short-lived. A cool front is expected to move in by Monday, bringing a return to temperatures in the 70s°F (21–26°C) and a renewed chance for scattered thunderstorms.
Stay alert and aware, Minnesota, as the next few days bring a volatile mix of nighttime storms and daytime heat.
