Weather outlook across New Jersey as July 4 approaches
New Jersey is bracing for two rounds of strong thunderstorms and heavy rain in the lead-up to Independence Day, with temperatures climbing and humidity on the rise across much of the state. The National Weather Service is forecasting stormy conditions to strike during the afternoons and evenings of both Monday and Tuesday, with the risk of severe weather peaking on Tuesday.
Powerful wind gusts up to 60 mph, torrential downpours, localized flash flooding, and even hail are possible, especially on Tuesday afternoon and evening, as a cold front pushes through the region. After this unsettled pattern, drier and more comfortable weather is expected by Wednesday, but spotty showers may return to North Jersey on Thursday.
A heat advisory is in effect through 8 p.m. Monday for parts of northwestern Burlington, Mercer, Camden, and Gloucester Counties, where the heat index could reach 99°F (37°C).
North Jersey forecast: Wet start, calmer by midweek
Monday starts off warm and partly sunny, with a high near 89°F (32°C). Scattered storms could pop up after 3 p.m., though the chance is low at just 20%. By Monday night, however, the chance of storms increases significantly, with showers and thunder possible after 2 a.m. into early Tuesday morning, and a low near 73°F (23°C).
Tuesday brings a high likelihood of severe thunderstorms—90% chance of rain, with heavier downpours and frequent lightning expected during the afternoon and evening hours. Temperatures will climb to around 87°F (31°C) with southwest winds up to 15 mph. Storms could linger into the early hours of Wednesday, which will otherwise turn mostly sunny with a high of 85°F (29°C).
Thursday looks mostly sunny again, though a chance of thunderstorms remains for the afternoon, especially in northern counties. Expect a high around 85°F (29°C). The Fourth of July is projected to be sunny and mild, with a pleasant 80°F (27°C).
Central Jersey forecast: Rising heat, stormy skies
Central counties begin the week hot and unstable, with a high of 88°F (31°C) on Monday and increasing humidity. Showers and thunderstorms could begin after 2 p.m., with a 50% chance of rain. The threat increases overnight, especially after 8 p.m., with a low near 73°F (23°C).
Tuesday will be stormy and very warm, with temperatures nearing 90°F (32°C). Thunderstorms, some strong, are expected mainly after 2 p.m., bringing the chance of localized flooding and gusty winds. Tuesday night remains active, with showers and possible thunder until early Wednesday morning, with rain totals possibly reaching half an inch.
By Wednesday, the skies clear somewhat, and temperatures dip slightly to around 86°F (30°C). Some early morning showers may persist, but the day becomes partly sunny. Thursday brings sunshine and warmth with a high near 88°F (31°C), and the Fourth of July continues that trend with clear skies and temperatures around 82°F (28°C).
South Jersey forecast: Hot air, multiple storm threats
South Jersey will see the most intense heat on Monday, with temperatures topping out at 90°F (32°C) under partly sunny skies. Expect showers and thunderstorms throughout the day, especially during the afternoon hours, when heavier downpours are more likely. Rain risk is 60%, and the heat index will be uncomfortable.
The storm threat escalates on Tuesday, with a high of 91°F (33°C) and southwest winds increasing. Expect severe weather potential throughout the afternoon and evening, including thunderstorms with heavy rainfall, possibly up to three-quarters of an inch. Tuesday night remains stormy with rain continuing until early Wednesday morning and a low of 71°F (22°C).
Wednesday sees a gradual return to sunshine, though isolated storms may linger until early afternoon, with highs near 87°F (31°C). Thursday and Independence Day are expected to be sunny and warm, with Thursday’s high around 88°F (31°C) and July 4th peaking near 84°F (29°C) under clear skies.
All regions of New Jersey should remain alert to quickly changing conditions, especially during late afternoon hours on Monday and Tuesday, when instability and moisture will be at their highest.
