Kerr County, Texas — As floodwaters surged through the Texas Hill Country during the extended Fourth of July weekend, state and local officials have voiced serious concerns about federal weather forecasting, citing missed rainfall projections and questioning the adequacy of National Weather Service (NWS) warnings amid staffing shortfalls and budget cuts.
Texas Department of Emergency Management (TDEM) Chief Nim Kidd said Friday that NWS forecasts originally predicted between 4 and 8 inches of rain, but “the amount of rain that fell in this specific location was never in any of those forecasts.” Kidd emphasized that the entire media and public had received the same forecast but insisted it did not reflect the catastrophic rainfall that followed.
In reality, rainfall exceeded 10 inches (25.4 cm) just west of Kerrville, with some localized totals reaching over 18 inches (45.7 cm), according to LCRA data. That downpour transformed the Guadalupe River, which measured just under 1 foot (0.3 meters) late Thursday, into a raging torrent over 30 feet (9.1 meters) by early Friday morning—a rise of 29 feet in under two hours, based on USGS data.
Local leaders question urgency and timing of evacuation notices
On Friday, Lt. Gov. Dan Patrick, acting in place of Governor Trump during his campaign travel, said TDEM Assistant Chief Jay Hall personally warned judges and mayors in the flood zone of the developing risk. However, KXAN has requested records of those communications to confirm their content and urgency.
While NWS did issue a flash flood warning at 1:14 a.m. Friday, it took more than four hours for any county or city authority to post evacuation notices on social media. Kerrville Mayor Joe Herring, Jr. defended the city’s response as “admirable,” but details about the public alert process remain unclear.
Kerr County Judge Rob Kelly claimed officials “didn’t know this flood was coming,” despite the region’s history of rapid-onset flash floods. “We had no reason to believe this was going to be anything like what has happened here, none whatsoever,” Kelly said Friday. Kerrville City Manager Dalton Rice added that the actual rainfall far exceeded expectations, stating: “This rain event sat on top of that and dumped more rain than what was forecasted.”
Federal staffing shortages and forecasting capability under scrutiny
The National Weather Service office serving Austin and San Antonio is now under increased scrutiny. As of late April, the office reported a 23% vacancy rate, including five unfilled positions, such as two meteorologists and its warning coordination meteorologist (WCM) — a key role left vacant after Paul Yura’s early retirement in April.
Yura, who spent over three decades at the NWS, including many years in Central Texas, played a critical role in disseminating warnings, training storm spotters, and coordinating with local media. His retirement was part of a broader set of budget-related buyouts promoted during President Trump’s second term, which targeted federal workforce reductions.
According to the National Weather Service Employees Organization, NWS is currently trying to fill at least 126 roles nationwide, attempting to deploy temporary duty assignments and reassignments to meet the most urgent operational needs.
Despite the local office’s reduced staff, NWSEO legislative director Tom Fahy told KXAN the Kerr County flood was “a flash precipitation event” and said “adequate staffing and resources” were in place to handle it. “They issued timely forecasts and warnings leading up to the storm, including flood watches the day before,” Fahy stated.
Political fallout and federal attention intensify
The controversy over forecast accuracy and response speed comes as President Trump posted Friday on Truth Social that he is “working with State and Local Officials on the ground in Texas in response to the tragic flooding.” His administration dispatched U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem to Kerrville on Saturday.
Noem described the rainfall as “unprecedented” and emphasized Trump’s intention to modernize NOAA’s aging forecasting infrastructure, noting: “I do carry your concerns back to the federal government and back to President Trump.”
Deadly history of flooding in Central Texas
Central Texas, often referred to as “flash flood alley,” has a long and deadly history with extreme rainfall events, due to the region’s topography and soil saturation patterns. In 1987, 10 children were killed when a church camp bus was swept away by a flood on the Guadalupe River. In 1998, nearly 30 inches (76.2 cm) of rain fell near San Marcos, destroying homes from Canyon Lake to Seguin. And during Memorial Day weekend in 2015, catastrophic flooding along the Blanco River killed 13 people and washed away entire neighborhoods near Austin.
The Fourth of July 2025 tragedy now adds another chapter to the region’s long battle with sudden, violent floods—raising new questions about forecast accuracy, communication protocols, and the capacity of federal agencies to respond under the weight of staffing and budget constraints.
