Severe storms may spark Monday in western Minnesota, but lose strength near the metro
MINNEAPOLIS – Monday, July 7, 2025 (New York local time) — A volatile weather setup is shaping up across Minnesota this Monday, with severe thunderstorms possible by afternoon in the western part of the state, but uncertainty remains about whether those storms will hold together by the time they arrive in the Twin Cities.
The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities highlights two chances for rain this week, the first one coming today, especially in the late afternoon and evening hours. Some storms may turn strong, carrying damaging wind gusts and hail. However, forecasters say that while these storms could pack a punch across the Dakotas and western Minnesota, they are expected to weaken as they approach the eastern part of the state, including the Minneapolis–Saint Paul metro.
Simulated radar data from the HRRR model paints a clear picture: storms are forecast to initiate in western Minnesota by early afternoon, with the strongest cells arriving between 6 and 9 p.m. in the Twin Cities — likely in a decaying state.
The HRRR’s updraft helicity tracks — a parameter used to detect rotating updrafts inside storms — also suggest the strongest storm activity will focus on western counties, where the environment is more favorable for severe development.
Similarly, gust swath projections from both the HRRR and the NAM 3km models show that strong wind gusts are most likely in western Minnesota, where storms are forecast to be more vigorous before weakening as they track eastward. The RRFS model supports this trend as well, keeping the most active weather west of the metro corridor.
As of now, the Storm Prediction Center assigns most of Minnesota a Level 1 of 5 marginal risk on the severe weather scale. Higher risks (Levels 2 and 3) are focused farther southwest, across South Dakota, Nebraska, Colorado, and Kansas, where instability and wind shear are more supportive of organized severe weather.
An updated severe outlook will be issued Monday morning, refining the forecast as new data becomes available.
