Southeast Michigan is bracing for potentially severe storms this afternoon, as a second wave of intense weather moves in following heavy rain and thunderstorms that already swept through parts of Northern Michigan and the eastern Upper Peninsula earlier today.
Some areas around Traverse City have already picked up more than 2 inches of rain, leading to flooded roads and delaying the start of the popular Boyne Thunder poker run boat race farther north.
But as that first round of storms exits to the northeast, forecasters are closely watching a second, more dangerous system expected to develop this afternoon across the lower half of the state, with the focus shifting to Southeast Michigan.
The National Weather Service has updated its timeline, saying the greatest risk for severe weather will fall between noon and 8 p.m., especially in and around the Metro Detroit area.
Heat and humidity set the stage for storm development
A surge of heat and humidity has primed the atmosphere for storm activity. Temperatures are climbing into the upper 80s (around 31°C) across much of southern Michigan, with heat index values pushing into the upper 90s (around 36°C) in some areas.
These conditions, combined with incoming atmospheric instability, could help trigger strong to severe thunderstorms this afternoon and evening.
Eastern Michigan faces the highest risk
Forecasters say eastern Michigan stands the best chance of seeing the most widespread and intense storms. Areas east of US-23, including Detroit, Ann Arbor, and Port Huron, could see multiple rounds of thunderstorms, bringing threats of:
Damaging wind gusts up to 60 mph,
Torrential downpours capable of localized flash flooding,
Large hail, and
Frequent lightning.
One major concern is the potential for a “training” effect, where thunderstorms repeatedly pass over the same areas in a short period of time, increasing the risk of flooding.
Forecasters now give eastern sections of the state a 70% or greater chance of storm development today, with conditions improving gradually after sunset as the system moves off to the east.
Quieter weather ahead
Once the storms clear out late tonight, Sunday night and Monday should offer a break in the action, with more seasonable temperatures and mainly dry skies expected to start the new week.
