Ohio is staring down a weather divide this Fall 2025, as two of the most followed forecasts in the country couldn’t be more different. The Old Farmer’s Almanac and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) have released their seasonal projections—and they don’t match up at all.
According to the Old Farmer’s Almanac, Ohio is heading into a cooler, drier autumn. Their forecast suggests lower-than-normal temperatures and below-average rainfall for much of the state. That prediction extends directly into Stark County, where the Almanac expects average early fall temperatures in September, followed by cooler weather in October, paired with scarce precipitation. In contrast, much of the West—from the Pacific Northwest through Texas and Oklahoma—is expected to experience milder, warmer conditions.
The Almanac adds that this cool and crisp setup could mean vibrant fall foliage for the Northeast and Ohio Valley, especially with “scattered showers, occasional warm spells, and an overall chilly atmosphere.” If you’re in or around Akron-Canton, expect a typical start with September averages hovering around 65.4°F (18.6°C), followed by a clear drop into October with 53.7°F (12.1°C), then 42.5°F (5.8°C) in November, and 33°F (0.5°C) in December.
But the NOAA is painting a very different picture. Their latest seasonal outlook assigns a 40% to 50% chance of above-average temperatures across most of Ohio from September through November. In certain central pockets, the probability slightly lowers to 33% to 40%, but still leans warm. On the precipitation front, NOAA sees a 33% to 40% probability of above-normal rainfall state-wide—clearly diverging from the Almanac’s dry prediction.
So, whether you’re preparing for a sweater season or still expecting to run the AC, it all depends on which outlook you trust.
The first official day of fall lands on Monday, September 22, bringing with it more than just cooler breezes—perhaps a forecast face-off that will play out in real time.
In terms of average rainfall, the Akron-Canton region usually logs about 3.5 inches (8.9 cm) in September, 3.34 inches (8.5 cm) in October, 3.08 inches (7.8 cm) in November, and 2.89 inches (7.3 cm) by December. If the Almanac is right, those totals might dip this year; if NOAA is on target, the region could be soggier than usual.
Outside of Ohio, the Old Farmer’s Almanac anticipates above-average heat in regions like the Atlantic Corridor, Southeast, Florida, the Deep South, Heartland, and Alaska, while cooler air is expected to settle over the Northeast, the Appalachians, the Ohio Valley, the Upper Midwest, and even as far as Hawaii and parts of the Desert Southwest.
