Saturday, July 5, 2025 — SOUTH TEXAS continues to experience lingering rainfall, particularly across the Hill Country and along the Interstate 35 corridor, as a mid- to upper-level low pressure system drifts southeast. This same system is responsible for the heavy downpours seen along the Guadalupe River during the Fourth of July holiday, but meteorologists say it’s beginning to weaken.
In San Antonio, the National Weather Service reports a 50% chance of showers and thunderstorms through Saturday, with the possibility of up to half an inch of rain. Thanks to rain-cooled air, afternoon highs are forecast to stay below 85°F (29°C) — nearly 10 degrees cooler than the typical early July average. In fact, San Antonio hasn’t recorded a July 5 high temperature below 90°F (32°C) since 2007, when it reached just 88°F (31°C), also following a rain event.
Why the pattern is shifting
According to the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Model, the bulk of the rainfall through Sunday morning at 7 a.m. is expected to drench the Hill Country. The system driving the rain — an upper-level disturbance — is weakening, though still capable of isolated pockets of intense showers.
The National Weather Service notes that by Saturday night, the storm motion will become more progressive, which reduces the risk of flooding. Although some localized heavy rain could still fall during the day, the overall precipitation amounts are expected to decline.
By Sunday, San Antonio should begin to dry out, with partly sunny skies returning and temperatures rebounding. Sunday’s high is expected to reach around 90°F (32°C), still roughly 5 degrees cooler than average, but that trend won’t last long.
Heat gradually returning across South Texas
Despite the cooling effects of recent rain, humid southeast winds off the Gulf Coast are pushing tropical air into South Texas, keeping heat index values in the low 90s°F (32–34°C). The National Blend of Models, a composite forecast tool, supports this trend, showing a gradual increase in temperatures as we head into next week.
On Monday, San Antonio will experience mostly sunny skies with a high around 92°F (33°C). Overnight temperatures will drop to about 73°F (23°C). Tuesday’s forecast mirrors Monday, with highs near 93°F (34°C) under mostly clear skies.
By Wednesday, the subtropical ridge of high pressure is expected to strengthen, leading to hotter and drier conditions. San Antonio could see highs reaching 95°F (35°C), marking a return to typical July heat. Rain chances will shrink dramatically, limited mostly to sea breeze showers near the Coastal Plains during the afternoons on Monday and Tuesday.
The extended forecast shows temperatures climbing steadily, possibly pushing into triple digits by next weekend, as sunshine dominates and high pressure builds over the region.
