- Warmer-than-average temperatures expected across California this fall
- Northern California may get light showers, but heat dominates early fall
- Southern California to remain mostly dry and warm
- National Weather Service outlook aligns with a warmer trend
- Heat-related risks remain a concern as summer transitions into fall
Warmer-than-average temperatures expected across California this fall
As autumn 2025 approaches, California is not likely to see much relief from the heat. Both the Old Farmer’s Almanac and the National Weather Service are forecasting a warmer and drier than usual season across the entire state, continuing the pattern of rising temperatures that has defined recent years.
Northern California may get light showers, but heat dominates early fall
In Northern California, early September is projected to be warm, punctuated by scattered thunderstorms. This initial spike in humidity won’t last long, as conditions will gradually shift to dry and mild by October, when regional rain showers might briefly return. Still, the Old Farmer’s Almanac notes that rainfall for the region is forecasted to be around 2.5 inches, which is about 2 inches below the seasonal norm.
Average temperatures in October are expected to hover near 76°F (24°C), which is close to seasonal averages, though highs in early autumn may exceed that mark frequently during the day.
Southern California to remain mostly dry and warm
In contrast, Southern California is forecasted to experience persistently dry and warmer-than-average conditions. The Old Farmer’s Almanac warns of a “steamy” beginning to fall, especially in September, as temperatures climb and precipitation remains well below average.
By October, the forecast indicates continued warmth, though with a slight moderation in daytime highs. Rainfall levels are still expected to fall significantly below seasonal norms, and no substantial precipitation events are currently anticipated.
Despite increased hurricane activity in the broader Pacific region, direct impacts to Southern California are considered unlikely at this time.
National Weather Service outlook aligns with a warmer trend
The National Weather Service’s Climate Prediction Center confirms this broader warming pattern. Its three-month outlook for September through November 2025 places most of California in a 33% to 50% probability range for above-normal temperatures, with eastern California facing the highest likelihood.
When it comes to rain, the agency states there are “equal chances” for above-, below-, or near-normal precipitation totals across the state. This means uncertainty remains high regarding any potential relief from dry conditions, particularly in areas prone to seasonal drought.
Heat-related risks remain a concern as summer transitions into fall
Though summer will officially end, the lingering heat poses ongoing health concerns, especially for vulnerable groups. The National Weather Service continues to emphasize the importance of staying hydrated, avoiding midday sun, and recognizing early signs of heat-related illness.
Even during the fall, heat exhaustion and heat stroke remain real threats when temperatures soar. Symptoms of heat exhaustion include heavy sweating, nausea, muscle cramps, and weakness, while heat stroke may present as confusion, red and hot skin, and a body temperature over 103°F (39.4°C)—a medical emergency that requires immediate attention.
As California transitions into what appears to be another dry and warm fall, the state continues to experience the ongoing impacts of changing seasonal patterns, particularly in the face of rising average temperatures and increased weather variability.
